On December 29, 2023, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the Guidance Catalogue for Industrial Structure Adjustment (2024 edition) (hereinafter referred to as the New Guidance Catalogue) after deliberation and adoption. The new guidance catalogue will come into effect on February 1, 2024, and the Guidance Catalogue for Industrial Structure Adjustment (2019 edition) (hereinafter referred to as the 2019 edition Guidance Catalogue) will be abolished at the same time. The new guidance catalogue still consists of three categories: encouragement, restriction and elimination. For the steel industry, there are 7 encouraged categories, 21 restricted categories and 23 eliminated categories. In the consultation stage of the new guidance catalogue, the proposal of "downward adjustment of the upper limit of the nominal capacity range of the electric furnace equipment", which has attracted much attention, was not adopted, and the statement used is "the electric arc furnace with a nominal capacity of more than 30 tons and 100 tons (alloy steel 50 tons)." In addition, the new guidance catalogue in the elimination of backward production equipment on the expression of "400 cubic meters and below steelmaking pig iron blast furnace (Hebei Province 450 cubic meters and below steelmaking pig iron blast furnace)" and other statements, has not been adjusted. So, in the face of the goal of reaching 15% of short-process steelmaking output in 2025, how to orderly promote the development of electric furnace steel?
In the short term, emphasis should be placed on improving the capacity utilization rate of EAF steel
The "Industrial Structure Adjustment Guidance Catalogue (2005)" (hereinafter referred to as the 2005 version of the guidance catalogue) for restricted electric furnaces is "electric furnaces with a nominal capacity of 70 tons or less or a nominal capacity of 70 tons or more, which are not synchronously equipped with dust recovery devices, energy consumption, new water consumption, etc., which do not meet the standard". The "Industrial Structure Adjustment Guidance Catalogue (2011)" (hereinafter referred to as the 2011 version of the guidance catalogue) of restricted electric furnaces is expressed as "nominal capacity of more than 30 tons 100 tons (alloy steel 50 tons) below the electric furnace; Electric furnaces with nominal capacity of 100 tons (50 tons of alloy steel) and above, but not synchronized with soot recovery devices, energy consumption greater than 98 kilograms of standard coal/ton, and new water consumption greater than 3.2 cubic meters/ton, etc." Since the 2011 edition of the guidance catalogue, the new guidance catalogue, which will be implemented immediately on February 1 this year, the nominal capacity range of restricted electric furnaces remains consistent.
With the clearance of 140 million tons of "strip steel", China's electric furnace steel industry has achieved a new round of development. In the "Action Plan for Continuous Improvement of Air Quality" issued by The State Council, it is proposed that "by 2025, the short-process steelmaking output will account for 15%", creating policy space for the development of the electric furnace steel industry. From the current point of view, it is less than two years to reach the target requirement of short-process steel production by the end of 2025. It is estimated that the total output of electric steel in 2023 will once again exceed 100 million tons, but the proportion of electric steel production in the total output of crude steel is still less than 10%.
According to incomplete statistics, as of the end of 2023, China's 417 electric furnace equipment (including existing, new and to be built) the total annual production capacity of about 220 million tons, of which 2023 has been announced the new electric furnace steel equipment involving a total of 17, including 10 nominal capacity of 100 tons and above electric furnaces and 7 alloy steel furnaces, the total annual production capacity of 11.83 million tons. It can be seen that even after deducting the capacity of electric furnace steel that has not yet been put into production, the utilization rate of electric furnace steel capacity in China is still fluctuating at about 50% for a long time. The target proportion of EAF steel production to total crude steel production as scheduled should not depend on the number or capacity of EAF steel equipment, and the key to solving the problem should be how to improve the capacity utilization of EAF steel.
Assuming that the total production capacity of China's crude steel in 2025 is 1 billion tons, and the proportion of short-process steel production by then reaches 15%, the corresponding output is 150 million tons. If the total production capacity of 200 million tons of electric furnace steel is calculated, then the capacity utilization rate of electric furnace steel is required to reach 75%. The completion of the capacity utilization rate can not only rely on the nominal capacity of 100 tons and above and 50 tons and above alloy steel electric furnaces to complete, but the average capacity utilization rate of all electric furnaces, including restricted electric furnaces, needs to reach 75%. Although, with the continuous improvement of the smelting process level of electric furnace and the overall level of equipment, the capacity utilization rate of some new electric furnace has reached or exceeded 150%, but subject to the shortage of scrap resources, the shortage of power resources and the high average price of electricity, enterprises will not continue to operate at a loss for a long time in pursuit of high capacity utilization.
Therefore, from the current to the end of 2025, it is recommended to temporarily shelve the policy requirements for the completion of the transformation of restricted electric furnaces within the deadline, and try not to introduce or introduce less differential policies for restricted electric furnaces. First, ensure that the existing electric furnace enterprises can survive, and do not reduce or reduce the existing short-process total steelmaking output as much as possible. Under the premise of achieving the goal of the proportion of short-process steelmaking output in 2025 and the overall recovery of the steel industry, a new round of replacement and upgrading of restricted electric furnaces will be considered.
Juri achieved common technical breakthroughs for electric furnaces of 100 tons and above
China's electric furnace in the early stage of development to smelt special steel, rarely use electric furnaces to smelt ordinary steel, so the vast majority of electric furnaces nominal capacity is less than 100 tons, but there are also cases like Angang Lianhong using 150 tons of special electric furnaces to produce stainless steel.
Since the clearance of "strip steel", foreign electric furnace equipment manufacturers such as Danieli, Tenon, Pruet, Simak, etc., have provided a batch of electric furnaces with a nominal volume of 100 tons and above to the domestic, but the vast majority of these electric furnaces are still used for the production of plain steel, and most of them are based on traditional construction steel. On the one hand, the new large electric furnace enterprises are mostly private enterprises, do not have an independent scientific research team to complete the development of new steel grades, and the supporting construction of hot rolling line is also the production of construction steel; Due to site restrictions, it is almost impossible to install new rolling lines for other types of steel, and it is unlikely to spend a lot of money to remove existing rolling lines and rebuild them. On the other hand, foreign electric furnace equipment supporting facilities and integrated software systems are highly mature and closed, and some of the equipment delivered during the epidemic period, the overall debugging and operation are more or less affected by the inability of technical personnel to go to the factory, and the operation of newly put into production equipment is not as smooth as imagined; Even if there is a good reserve of smelting technology, it is not easy to integrate well and achieve functions through the existing system platform. It is undeniable that the overall level of electric furnace equipment in foreign countries is higher than that in China, and they carry out horizontal and vertical comparative studies between or within enterprises on smelting production process index data for electric furnaces of the same type or put into operation at the same time successively in China, which not only makes the existing electric furnaces continue to optimize in process parameters, but also makes them better. It also makes the new electric furnace have the conditions of continuous optimization and improvement from the beginning of design.
For the major domestic suppliers of electric furnaces, Changchun Electric Furnaces and Wuxi Dongxiong, which have a high market share, mainly stay in the production of the main equipment of electric furnaces, and do not have the strength to provide overall solutions. MCC CCID, MCC Jingcheng and other independent research and development of similar to foreign electric furnace equipment manufacturers of the overall solution, but equipment maturity and market share still need to go through the test of time.
At present, the key common technologies that need to be broken through for electric furnaces with nominal capacity of 100 tons and above are mainly based on which steel grades are smelted, that is, the composition requirements of finished steel are put forward for electric furnace smelting. In this regard, downstream users, steel enterprises, research institutes and universities need to form a joint force, specific division of labor and cooperation, and complete technical reserves. Electric furnace equipment manufacturers and design institutes, colleges and universities should spend great efforts on electric furnace complete equipment solutions, complete cooperation in the fields of electric furnace process parameter indicators, modular design, final molten steel composition, system integration, etc., as soon as possible to match foreign electric furnace equipment, to achieve domestic systematic large-scale integration, development and application of large electric furnaces with nominal capacity of more than 150 tons. Around the use of a large proportion of green electricity in electric furnace equipment, steel enterprises, electric furnace equipment manufacturers and State Grid, Southern Power Grid and other power companies together, through the implementation of external power grids, substations and electric furnace equipment power supply facilities transformation, the formation of suitable for electric furnace enterprises with green electricity direct supply of general solutions, in the country as soon as possible to achieve promotion. It is suggested that on the basis of the hydrogen base shaft furnace + large electric furnace smelting process of He Steel and Zhan Steel, a technical route suitable for large proportion of direct reduced iron for large electric furnaces in China should be explored as soon as possible, to provide technical support and guarantee for more domestic electric furnaces using direct reduced iron or pressing block as raw materials, and to lay the foundation for further improving the proportion of short process steelmaking output.
It is suggested not to raise the volume standard of blast furnace in the short term
The 2005 guidance catalogue calls for the phase-out of blast furnaces of 300 cubic meters or less by the end of 2007; Since the 2011 edition of the guidance catalogue listed "400 cubic meters and below ironmaking blast furnaces" as the elimination category, the 2019 edition of the guidance catalogue added a new Hebei ironmaking blast furnace elimination category of 450 cubic meters and below, to the new guidance catalogue that is about to take effect, the volume of ironmaking blast furnaces in the country that are included in the elimination category has not been adjusted. According to the survey, China has basically no 400 cubic meters and below the eliminated type of iron smelting blast furnace in operation, Hebei's only 450 cubic meters of iron smelting blast furnace has also been in a state of production. It can be said that China has basically realized the shutdown, replacement and demolition of obsolete blast furnaces.
According to incomplete statistics, the number of existing blast furnaces in China is less than 900, of which there are still more than 300 with a volume of less than 1000 cubic meters. In the blast furnace within 1000 cubic meters, the blast furnace below 500 cubic meters accounts for the largest proportion, and this part of the blast furnace has been on the edge of elimination, if the future will be eliminated class of blast furnace volume standard expanded again, then the 300 small blast furnace will face the elimination of the outcome. At present, there are more than 360 blast furnaces with the main volume range of 1200 cubic meters to 2000 cubic meters, and more than 160 blast furnaces with more than 2000 cubic meters. Although China has been promoting the upscaling of blast furnaces for some time, in addition to several coastal steel production bases such as Caofeidian in Hebei Province, Rizhao in Shandong province and Zhanjiang in Guangdong Province, relying on coastal advantages, new blast furnaces with a volume of more than 5,000 cubic meters have been built one after another, and new blast furnaces in inland areas still rely on capacity replacement to complete the closure of several small blast furnaces in the interior. The construction of one or more blast furnaces of about 2000 cubic meters is considered to be the mainstream choice. The reason is not only that the input cost of the pre-construction of the blast furnace with a larger volume is relatively higher, but also that the policy of concentrate operation needs to be always upheld in the later production operation process, and the flexibility is poor.
Therefore, the author suggests that the volume standard of obsolete blast furnaces should not be raised in the short term. This is mainly due to the following considerations: First, if the elimination standard is increased by 100 cubic meters on the existing basis, nearly 300 blast furnaces will be classified into the elimination category, in the current steel market, it will be tantamount to becoming the last straw to crush the enterprise; Second, in terms of larger blast furnaces, the small blast furnaces have low requirements for charging materials as a whole, and the down-line operation is relatively simple. Under the premise of the completion of environmental protection transformation and pollutant emission standards, it is still competitive in the market at present. Third, from the process process matching, if the unified requirements for the equipment volume of the ironmaking process, small blast furnace "to small on large", then the converter or electric furnace involved in the back-end steelmaking process also need to be synchronized "to small on large", the capital requirements are too high, and this is still based on the enterprise has a number of small blast furnaces, can be completed by capacity replacement under the premise; Fourth, we can try to build electric furnaces at the back end of small blast furnaces, and the new electric furnaces can not only absorb urban waste, but also consume a part of hot metal, alleviate the anxiety of insufficient scrap steel resources, form a "small blast furnace + electric furnace" model, and further enrich the connotation of "urban steel mills". (Su Buxin)
