China Iron and Steel News Network China Metallurgical News
My correspondent Guo Daqing reports
On January 30, China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association held a press conference. At the meeting, Chen Xuesen, the Standing Committee of the Party Committee of the China Non-ferrous Metals Industry As ociation, Vice president and spokesman, released the economic operation of the non-ferrous metals industry in 2023 and answered questions from reporters.
Chen Xuesen pointed out that 2023 is the first year of fully implementing the spirit of the Party's 20 National Congress, and it is a year of economic recovery after three years of COVID-19 prevention and control. We actively responded to the impact of a grim external environment, a decline in exports, a slowdown in traditional consumption, and large price fluctuations on industrial operations. We worked hard to optimize the industrial structure, forestall and defuse risks, made solid progress in high-quality development, and became increasingly stable and sound. The highlights of the development of non-ferrous metal industry in 2023 a re: first, the output of ten non-ferrous metal products exceeded the 70 million tons mark for the first time; Second, the growth rate of non-ferrous metal industry investment reached a record high in the past decade; Third, the import of traditional mining raw materials maintained growth, and the decline of main export products narrowed; Fourth, the price trend of non-ferrous metal varieties is differentiated; Fifth, non-ferrous metal enterprises achieved profits from a decline to an increase, overall more than the previous year's level; Sixth, the rapid development of photovoltaic, wind power, new energy vehicles, power and energy storage batteries and other industries have become new growth points of non-ferrous metal consumption; Seventh, remarkable achievements in international cooperation, Zijin Mining Group mine copper output exceeded one million tons for the first time.
Chen Xuesen pointed out that the stable and good trend of the non-ferrous metal industry in 2023 is becoming increasingly obvious.
In 2023, the industrial added value of non-ferrous metal enterprises increased by 7.4% over the previous year, an increase of 2.2 percentage points over the previous year, and 2.8 percentage points higher than the industrial added value of national enterprises. Since the new coronavirus epidemic, the industrial added value of non-ferrous metal enterprises has shown a stable recovery trend, increasing by 2.1% in 2020, 3.1% in 2021, 5.2% in 2022, and 7.4% in 2023. The operation characteristics of the industry in 2023 are specifically reflected in the following six aspects:
(1) The output of ten non-ferrous metal products exceeded 70 million tons for the first time
According to preliminary statistics, the output of ten commonly used non-ferrous metals in China in 2023 was 74.698,000 tons, an increase of 7.1% over the previous year according to comparable caliber calculation (the same below). By quarter, 18.098 million tons in the first quarter; 18.285 million tons in the second quarter, 18.634 million tons in the third quarter, and 19.683 million tons in the fourth quarter, showing an increase quarter by quarter. Among them, the annual refined copper output of 12.99 million tons, an increase of 13.5%; Electrolytic aluminum output was 41.59 million tons, up 3.7% year-on-year; The metal content of six concentrates was 6.415 million tons, down 0.5% from the previous year; Alumina output was 82.441 million tons, an increase of 1.4% over the previous year; Copper production (not excluding 1.7 million tons of repeated statistics between enterprises) 22.170 million tons, an increase of 5.0% over the previous year; Aluminum production (not excluding about 14 million tons of repeated statistics between enterprises) 63.034 million tons, an increase from a decline of 1.4% in the previous year to an increase of 5.7%. In 2023, the capacity utilization rate of non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry was 79.5%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points over the previous year and 4.2 percentage points higher than the capacity utilization rate of the national industrial manufacturing industry. Among them, the capacity utilization rate of non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry in the fourth quarter was 79.6%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points over the same period last year, and 3.6 percentage points higher than the capacity utilization rate of the national industrial manufacturing industry in the same period.
（2）The growth rate of fixed asset investment reached a record high in the past decade
In 2023, the fixed asset investment of the non-ferrous metal industry increased by 17.3% over the previous year, 2.8 percentage points higher than the growth rate of the previous year, 8.3 percentage points higher than the growth rate of the national industrial fixed asset investment. By quarter, the growth was 11.9% in the first quarter, 12.4% in the first half of the year, 14.1% in the first three quarters, and 17.3% for the whole year. In 2023, investment in fixed assets after mining and processing of non-ferrous metals will increase by 42.7%, and investment in fixed assets after smelting and rolling processing will increase by 12.5%. In 2023, the investment in non-ferrous metal materials required by photovoltaic, wind power, power and energy storage batteries, new energy vehicles and non-ferrous metal mines has increased rapidly, which is an important factor driving the growth of fixed asset investment in non-ferrous metals industry. Since the new coronavirus epidemic, the growth rate of fixed asset investment completed by the non-ferrous metal industry is: an increase of -1.0% in 2020, an increase of 4.1% in 2021, an increase of 14.5% in 2022, and an increase of 17.3% in 2023, which is a record high in the past decade.
(3) Non-ferrous metal mine raw material imports increased, and the decline in aluminum exports narrowed
In 2023, China's non-ferrous metal import and export trade totaled 331.54 billion US dollars, (according to comparable caliber calculation, the same below) an increase of 1.5%. Specifically, the value of imports was 271.94 billion US dollars, up by 4.3%; Exports amounted to 59.61 billion US dollars, down 9.8%.
In 2023, the physical import volume of copper concentrate was 27.536 million tons, an increase of 2.303 million tons over the previous year, an increase of 9.1%. Among them, imports in the fourth quarter were 7.194 million tons, up 4.1% from the previous quarter.
In 2023, imports of unforged rolled copper and copper materials were 5.48 million tons, down 360,000 tons from the previous year, down 6.2%. Among them, the fourth quarter imports of 1.509 million tons, an increase of 7.5%.
In 2023, the physical volume of bauxite imports was 141.38 million tons, an increase of 16.15 million tons over the previous year, an increase of 12.9%. Among them, imports in the fourth quarter of 34.74 million tons, an increase of 0.5%.
In 2023, the export volume of unforged rolled aluminum and aluminum was 5.675 million tons, down 919,000 tons from the previous year, down 13.9%, but the decline was 1.5 percentage points smaller than the first three quarters and 6.1 percentage points smaller than the first half of the year. Among them, exports in the fourth quarter were 1.418 million tons, down 2.3% from the previous quarter.
In 2023, rare earth exports were 52,306.5 tons, an increase of 3,578.7 tons over the previous year, an increase of 7.3%. Among them, exports in the fourth quarter were 11,943.7 tons, down 15.5% from the previous quarter.
(4) Price differentiation of non-ferrous metal varieties
First, the price fluctuation of the main commonly used non-ferrous metals is less than that of new energy metals. Copper prices are up slightly from a year ago. In 2023, the average price of copper in the domestic spot market was 68,272 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.2% over the previous year, and an increase of 1.0 percentage points over the previous three quarters. Aluminum price declines continued to narrow. In 2023, the average price of aluminum in the domestic spot market was 18,717 yuan/ton, down 6.4% from the previous year, but the decline was 2.4, 7.2 and 10.3 percentage points narrower than the first three quarters, the first half and the first quarter, respectively. Industrial silicon prices fell, but showed signs of stopping by the end of the year. In 2023, the average price of industrial silicon in the domestic spot market was 15,605 yuan/ton, down 22.5% from the previous year, but the average price rose by 7.8% in the fourth quarter. Battery grade lithium carbonate prices fell sharply. In 2023, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate in the domestic spot market was 262,000 yuan/ton, down 47.3% from the previous year, but the average annual price was still the second highest in history. Among them, the average price in December was 111,000 yuan/ton, down 79.1% year-on-year, and the price at the end of the year was close to or below the cost line of some enterprises.
Second, the price of major non-ferrous metals in the domestic market is stronger than the international market. In the first period of 2023, the average price of copper for three months rose by 1.8% compared with the previous year, while the average price of copper for three months on LME fell by 3.2% compared with the previous year. The average price of aluminum in March 2023 fell 6.8 percentage points lower than the LME in the previous year.
Third, the spot price of major non-ferrous metals is better than the futures price. The average price of domestic spot copper in 2023 is 1051 yuan/ton higher than the average price of copper in three months in the previous period, and the average price of domestic spot aluminum is 238 yuan/ton higher than the average price of aluminum in three months in the previous period.
(5) The profits of non-ferrous metal enterprises have changed from a decline to an increase
In 2023, the total profit of non-ferrous metal industrial enterprises reached 371.61 billion yuan, an increase of 23.2% over the previous year (calculated according to comparable caliber, the same below). Among them, the total profit of non-ferrous metal industrial enterprises in the fourth quarter was 163.08 billion yuan, an increase of 88.2%. Among the annual profits, the profit of independent mining enterprises reached 78.57 billion yuan, an increase of 8.1 percent; the profit of smelting enterprises reached 186.90 billion yuan, an increase of 23.1 percent; and the profit of processing enterprises reached 106.15 billion yuan, an increase of 37.6 percent. The cost of 100 yuan of operating income was 94.64 yuan, down 0.31 yuan from the previous year.
(6) Photovoltaic, wind power, new energy vehicles, power and energy storage batteries have become the main areas of non-ferrous metal consumption growth
In 2023, China's photovoltaic, wind power, new energy vehicles, power and in addition to energy storage batteries and other output, domestic new energy installed capacity, and the export volume of products in the above areas have increased significantly, becoming the main growth area of non-ferrous metal consumption of copper, aluminum, zinc. It is estimated that the above-mentioned industries will consume about 3 million tons of copper in 2023, an increase of 52% over the previous year, accounting for about 19% of the national copper consumption, and driving the national copper consumption growth of about 7 percentage points; The above industries consume about 9 million tons of aluminum, an increase of 50% over the previous year, accounting for nearly 20% of the national aluminum consumption, driving the national aluminum consumption growth of about 7.2 percentage points; In 2023, the galvanized consumption of steel structure equipment such as wind power tower tubes, bolts and photovoltaic steel supports is about 700,000 tons, an increase of 51% over the previous year, accounting for about 9% of the national zinc consumption, driving the national zinc consumption growth of about 3.4 percentage points.
(7) The copper output of Fujian Zijin Mining Group exceeded one million tons for the first time
In recent years, domestic non-ferrous metal enterprises have made remarkable achievements in the development of domestic and foreign resources, and the amount and output of major non-ferrous metal equity resources such as copper, aluminum, nickel, cobalt and lithium have increased significantly. Among many domestic enterprises, what is especially gratifying is that Fujian Zijin Mining Group achieved the mine copper production of 1.01 million tons for the first time in 2023, which is the only enterprise in China that has broken the one million mark of mineral copper, ranking among the top five in the world and entering the first square of global mining companies, making a historic breakthrough in the global resource competition for Chinese non-ferrous metal mining enterprises. It is gratifying to realize the development goals that the non-ferrous metal industry has been dreaming of for many years.
Chen Xuesen also made predictions on the non-ferrous metal industry operation trend and main economic indicators in 2024.
In 2024, China will continue to seek progress while maintaining stability, promote stability through progress, and make progress before achieving success. We will strengthen overall planning and coordination of macro policies, ensure that we work in the same direction and form synergy, enhance the effectiveness of macro policies, step up macro-control, and mitigate prominent risks. A series of policies to stabilize growth introduced in 2023 will continue to take effect in 2024, the potential of service consumption will continue to be released, high-tech and private manufacturing will support rapid economic growth, and the internal growth momentum of the economy will be further strengthened. However, we must also see that the economic operation in 2024 still faces some internal and external challenges. Internationally, the complexity, severity and uncertainty of the external environment are on the rise, geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, world economic growth is slowing down, and there are uncertainties in the adjustment of interest rates in developed economies. Spillover risks may still impact emerging market economies through exchange rates, capital flows, foreign debt and other channels. From the domestic perspective, the traditional consumer real estate supply and demand relationship of non-ferrous metals and other bulk raw materials has undergone major changes, and the growth rate of the new economy may slow down. In the face of the current economic situation at home and abroad, the non-ferrous metal industry will earnestly implement a series of policies issued by the Party Central Committee and The State Council, and solidly promote the stable and rapid development of the non-ferrous metal industry in 2024.
According to the macroeconomic environment at home and abroad, especially the operation characteristics of the non-ferrous metal industry at home and abroad, combined with the "Trinity" prosperity index report released by the non-ferrous Metal Association, under the premise of no "black swan" event, the main indicators of the non-ferrous metal industry in 2024 are predicted as follows:
In 2024, the growth rate of non-ferrous metals industrial added value remains above 5.5% and is expected to reach 6%. According to the new caliber statistics of ten commonly used non-ferrous metals production growth rate remained at about 5%. It is expected that the consumption of non-ferrous metals in the real estate field will continue to slow down in 2024, but photovoltaic, wind power, power and energy storage batteries, new energy vehicles and lightweight transportation vehicles are still the main growth points of non-ferrous metal consumption. In 2024, the growth rate of fixed asset investment in the non-ferrous metals industry will be maintained at about 10%. In 2024, China's aluminum exports are expected to continue to stabilize, and imports of copper concentrate and bauxite will maintain steady growth. In the first quarter of 2024, the price of non-ferrous metals will fluctuate mainly at the current price, the price of copper and aluminum metals is expected to recover slightly in the second half of the year, and industrial silicon and lithium carbonate are expected to fluctuate in a reasonable price range.
